By Fuhad Saneen | June 19, 2025
As tensions rise between Israel and Iran, the ripple effects are being felt far beyond the battlefield — and the UAE’s job market could be the next to feel the heat.
While surging oil prices might temporarily boost government revenues, economists warn that the broader economy — especially the sectors responsible for the most jobs — may soon feel pressure. The big question on everyone’s mind: Are jobs in the UAE safe, or is a hiring freeze (or worse) on the horizon?
Non-Oil Sectors Face a Hiring Chill
According to economic analysts, if the conflict stretches on or escalates, industries like tourism, aviation, logistics, real estate, and finance could take a direct hit. These sectors are among the biggest employers in the UAE and serve as engines of diversification under the country’s 2031 vision.
Aviation & Hospitality: Disruptions to regional air travel or skyrocketing insurance costs could see fewer tourists — and fewer staff needed.
Logistics & Trade: Threats to the Strait of Hormuz may reroute shipping or slow down supply chains, impacting transport and warehousing jobs.
Investment & Startups: As investor confidence weakens, startups and corporates may hit pause on hiring or restructure teams.
What the Three Economic Scenarios Mean for Jobs
1. Best-Case Scenario: Limited Conflict
If tensions are kept under control and oil facilities stay safe, economic growth will continue — just at a slower pace. Most sectors remain stable, and job growth continues, especially in government-backed initiatives and FDI-funded projects.
2. Moderate Disruption: Prolonged Conflict
Expect delayed hiring, potential layoffs in travel and tourism, and a tightening job market for new graduates and expats. Companies may become risk-averse, focusing on operational efficiency over growth.
3. Worst-Case Scenario: Full-Scale Regional War
A shutdown of the Strait or attacks on UAE infrastructure would be devastating. Major job losses in aviation, tourism, real estate, and retail could follow. Business confidence would collapse, and expat departures could spike.
Which Jobs Might Stay Safe — or Even Grow?
Not all industries will suffer. Roles in energy, defense, cybersecurity, public infrastructure, and emergency response may actually see a rise in demand. Additionally, large-scale public sector hiring and infrastructure projects under the UAE’s long-term vision may offer some employment stability even in tough times.
Expert Take
GCC economist Justin Alexander told EnterpriseAM, “If Gulf oil supply remains uninterrupted, high oil prices could support government spending and non-oil job creation. But if the conflict expands and hits infrastructure or shipping, the job market will feel the shock.”
Final Verdict: Time to Prepare?
Right now, the UAE job market remains steady — but the storm clouds are forming. If you’re job hunting or planning a career move, now’s the time to stay informed, adapt, and prepare for possible turbulence. Whether this turns into a hiring freeze or a full-blown employment crisis depends on how the geopolitical chessboard unfolds.
